I was intrigued to see the following Article, badly written, but a thought provoking read nonetheless, on the ongoing rise of the use of Systematically driven Investment Portfolios as opposed to the traditional “Bottom Up” “Top Down” Fundamental approach. First of all let’s be clear where I stand. My arguments are not so shallow as […]

Every week Sinergi data mine billions of sets of financial data across all Asset Classes, Sectors and stocks to show the power of the Sinergi Qlikview Dashboards The search is by no means exhaustive and , importantly, does NOT represent any form of Investment advice, constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product or […]

In Dec this author asked “How low can 10yr  Gilt yields fall?” with the suggestion that we couuld at least re visit the previous low circa 1.46 see in the previous Financial crisis  (ACHIEVED) ( see previous Blog) Ahead of  tomorrow’s 20150122 , ECB and QE announcement, please see attached update showing a potential move […]

For almost a year now this commentator has been a “reluctant Bull” in Fixed interest. During this time 10yr UK Gilt yields (see Chart below)  have fallen from circa 2.9% to 1.90% In Capital terms this equates to a rise in Price of  circa 15 points! The deflationary back drop recently exacerbated by poor Europe […]

On the 11 Oct 2014 this Commentator warned (hopefully with a bit of humour) that the Commodities Market was “Oversold”  * at least in the Short term) with Gold printing  circa $11450 Current price 1215 Best see below    

Please find attached quick summary of Debt % GDP and Household Share Debt (USD) (Click to enlarge)

The Author is a former UK Gilt Market Maker and a developer of Systematic evidenced based Trading strategies. For over 9 months now I (my Models)  have consistently refused to succomb to the interest rate “Bears” warning of impending Capital losses in Fixed Interest………….until now? So let’s take a look at some of the major Govt Curves […]

As costs go up and quality clients are inevitably predicted to decline, this was an interesting question posed to me recently as I was articulating why somebody should want to buy our services. As Sinergi, we know why we think our service is vital/necessary/value added and all of the rest of the tick the box […]

It is definitely heading in to summer time as we all begin to think about the holidays. We did not think that there were many riveting articles around over the last ten days but there have been a number recently on risk rated funds. Not that they are riveting but they do raise questions about […]

This IFA Online article appears a bit harsh…..almost everybody in the pension industry is superfluous to the process? I am not sure how Tesco would manage without the “middle men” but I am sure that they have held them to account for their respective costs. We actually believe these two articles have a more rational approach […]

For those that are interested we have a demo model of our analysis hosted on Qlikmarket. If you follow this link: Sinergi Demo you will find the launch pad. It is a demo model so it will not give away our secret recipe but there are help buttons to explain what we do in general to […]

It appeared to be a quiet week last week in terms of interesting articles. However, there were a couple that popped up, just as we were sliding out of the office and in to the weekend, catching our attention, giving rise to a chuckle and ultimately making us ask why, just why? As you might […]

UK Equity markets have taken 6-7 yrs in May this year to recover Index levels last seen in 2007, so we thought we would take what might seem an unusual time and our ever present statistical, evidenced based, un-emotional look at markets and put down some numbers. By way of a historical reference Fig 1 […]

A roundup of articles that we think are relevant to the pro-active adviser. Our focus is on the role of the adviser in the asset allocation process. Each adviser must decide how best to approach asset allocation and issues of outsourcing and delegating of investment management. As these articles suggest these decisions will influence the selection […]

As with all highly anticipated events the RDR has come and gone and we are left with the reality of what we are going to do for clients in terms of price and service, which hopefully results in value? It could be cheap or expensive but it must strive to be good value. Some individuals […]

Looking at a different theme this week, we are great advocates of a systematic approach to market analysis and the importance of differentiating between the use of evidence and making assumptions in decision processes across financial services. However, we are not slaves to the man versus machine argument and distinguish ourselves from “black box” technology. […]

Last week was a busy week for us and at each point of sitting down to consider our blog topic we were pointed in the direction of another comment or angle on the post RDR fee environment. As a result we are following on from the topic of our last blog on adviser and investment […]

While we are busy refining our own business offering and adapting to what we have learned over the last six months since we launched our website, we are seeing many finance professionals in the same boat. We are all attempting to smooth the communication process between client, adviser and investment manager. Without getting too philosophical, […]

It has been an interesting year so far and we are heading in to the final furlong with a number of key investment issues coming to a head that will affect your asset allocation decisions: • Is the Longer term Bull market in bonds and fixed interest over?; or • Will the equity rally become […]

For those of you that look forward to our blog items, you will have noticed that while we try to produce something for the beginning of each week it is not always easy to deliver a fresh point of view or a significant “game changer” every time. This week is not the case, we elected […]

Assessing Conventional Portfolio Analysis Methods Regular followers of the Sinergi philosophy will be aware of the distinction about having “unlimited capital” being one of the few  scenarios where one can keep buying lower prices with the prospect of the market rising above your average price. Given that, in theory , something can go to close […]

IFAs Playing Fund Manager as Trading Costs Fall You may not have noticed this article Playing Fund Manager  amid the wave of news that is published every day courtesy of modern media. Very often, it is the small items that begin to herald the change that appears obvious with hindsight. The article does not go in […]

Is Your VAT Served Hot or Cold? Recent articles have highlighted once again the potential for confusion over adviser VAT liability. Much like the PR disaster that was the “pasty tax” HMRC seem to be clouding our judgement by suggesting that client advice will be subject to VAT when the process of serving the client […]

Followers of the Sinergi methodology will already know that our analysis is NOT based on the impossible search to buy low prices or alternatively capturing peak prices. Moreover our proprietary knowledge is combined with our “associative search” functionality using our Qlikview dashboards that focuses on idebtifying the “risk” attached to a price irrespective of whether […]

Portfolio Planning – Art and Science Now that we have all returned from holidays and are gearing up for new business there have been a couple of interesting articles during August that focus on how advice and investment decisions are reached. In different ways they highlight the need for a disciplined decision process as fundamental […]

Discretionary Management Solutions Since we launched our market analysis services we have received consistent feedback about a great deal of its value lying with portfolio decision makers and particularly discretionary management. While our analysis is specifically designed to capture weekly trends which form a better picture for quarterly and semi-annual advisory reviews, a key component of […]

On 23 July ( see review here), we raised the issue about the potential dangers in Fixed Interest as an Asset Class stating that it was similar to a game of “kerplunk” where , in the absence of deflation and “Turning Japanese” it was only a matter of time until the last few straws of “safe haven” status from falling Equity markets […]

Past Performance is no Guarantee….. Last week Bestinvest announced that there had been a significant rise in the number of “dog funds” with nearly one in six of fund managers regarded as underperforming. As an adviser you are increasingly faced with the image of an irate client hanging on to several badly behaved fund managers […]

So we continue to live through historic times. Despite spiralling debt and huge Govt supply to reduce deficits, Core Govt Benchmark (UK and Eur) yields continue to fall and dumbfound and perplex many market participants. It is worth looking at this interesting Article by Chris Dillow 2010 that appeared in the Investors’ Chronicle on the effect […]

Sinergi Philosophy At the core of the Sinergi philosophy is the mantra of Capital Preservation which, in turn, is underpinned with firstly knowing “What NOT to do” This might at first glance sound slightly negative and risk adverse. On the Contrary, unlike many market participants who search for the impossible Holy Grail of “Buying Low” […]

Summer Doldrums?……..but important “Housekeeping” recommended   Well it is now the “Summer” and school holidays grip the markets, so we will keep it short. The old adage “sell in May and go away” appears to be holding true. What was a dynamic picture in the months of May and early June appears becalmed as virtually […]

Better to Be Lucky Than Good? We attended an excellent investment conference last week Money Investment Alliance http://www.investmentalliance.co.uk/ focusing on risk and market factors that will affect advisers in the coming year and beyond. The speakers and fund managers at the event covered a variety of subjects ranging from economic forecasts and behaviour to investment structures and […]

Equities, Fixed Interest and Commodities: While the rest of the market “observers” and “followers” concern themselves with the impossible task of interpreting the immediate pros and cons of the  Greek decision, we thought it appropriate to step back from some of the detail, avoid the current “noise” and look at the 3 major Asset Classes above […]

Markets Interim Report….”We all MUST do better?” Come on …lets own up and be honest………… As interest rates have fallen from their 1990’s peak of 15%, expectations for investment fund returns have fallen accordingly. What hasn’t fallen in line, however,  are the various layers of  fees that accrue in the process of managing funds for third […]

The Importance of Monitoring Investment Performance The large fines recently imposed on Martin Currie for their failure to effectively manage conflicts of interest are worth noting for anybody involved in the business of providing advice and allocating assets. Details of the transgression and the results are HERE As we read about the incident that resulted […]

The focus this week (Week 19) is on Commodities and, in particular, Gold GOLD (Comex) In the spotlight this week is the, some might say, surprising negative price activity of Commodities as Equity markets retreat. So why is Gold going down? The usual reference to the defensive “safe haven” status of Gold in such times […]

Improve Your Investment Strategy and decision making process. Most Advisers or Investment Professionals will be familiar with the recurring feeling that there are normally 3-5 major decision points per year that will have the most significant influence on their Clients investment Performance. These decisions have the ability to maximise investment performance either through compounding of […]

What to do with Tesco and Gold? We have seen some interesting articles in the past week regarding the outlook for the economies of the world and in particular features on Tesco and Gold (IFA On-Line Fri 4 May) as investments for the future. Tesco has been subject to great debate on the Motley Fool website […]

Performance (% ytd) is Historic and, in itself, has no bearing on future performance. Sinergi’s proprietary models and Reports, however, are real time and could be invaluable for any Adviser, Wealth Manager or Investment Committee to gain an “edge”, based on rigorous statistical back testing, in understanding Market behaviour, Market Timing, or Tactical Asset allocation. Despite being […]

  Each Adviser will have the ongoing problem of managing the time to allocate cash to his chosen Asset manager or Fund and justifying why. In this respect looking at historic performance is of limited help when trying to understand the current drivers.  Even with a choice of Manager, there are so many varaibles to consider such as […]

  Thinking about giving up? Are your perceptions of the changes required by RDR too onerous and that you “Just dont have the Time?” Before you decide….. take 5 out to see how the Sinergi solution could not only help you cope but strengthen your confidence about growing your business. Looking at Historic performance may be […]

Helping to Manage Client Interests The aim in our initial blog items has been to consider some of the practical concerns that an adviser may have in managing client interests effectively in the long term, which is the ultimate objective of the transition to adviser charging through RDR. We have considered outsourcing investments, dropping poor […]

There is no doubt that there are distinct advantages for advisers in outsourcing investment management on behalf of their clients. The ability to focus on the markets and sift through extensive research material is clearly a full time job. Other key considerations are: • Any organisation with more than one adviser begins to face issues […]

There are a number of questions that occur regularly as people look at our reports so we thought it would be helpful, in stages, to explain where our reports can make a difference for the adviser over the life of their client relationships. It is important to use all of the tools available to achieve […]

The recent clarification by HMRC of their guidelines regarding adviser charging does appear to relieve many advisers of responsibility to collect VAT. Or more accurately presents an opportunity to avoid the responsibility for collecting VAT. If you can prove that you observe the Six Step advice/intermediation process then all of your advice is potentially exempt […]

New Model Adviser has an interesting article today with sound comments from a number of advisers. In short there are many views about when and how to drop a fund from your investment universe? (here). Clearly a fund manager will have a view as to why their fund has failed to perform in the past […]

For those still unfamiliar with the Sinergi HeatMap and TACT products see – Learn More. Ahead of this week’s key Budget speech which may have particular ramifications for the Fixed Interest Markets rather than the Equities markets, we none the less thought it appropriate to review the last 9 months market behaviour of the Ftse 100 Index of shares […]

Position sizing and Managing Volatilty – key elements of Portfolio success. Hi all ! Over the coming months, through our Heatmap and TACT reports, we will provide a regular statistical insight on the changing face of market volatility across a range of Asset classes, Markets, Industry Sectors and occasionally at the individual Stock level. We […]