Followers of the Sinergi methodology will already know that our analysis is NOT based on the impossible search to buy low prices or alternatively capturing peak prices. Moreover our proprietary knowledge is combined with our “associative search” functionality using our Qlikview dashboards that focuses on idebtifying the “risk” attached to a price irrespective of whether it is historically “high” or “low” in time to act on the information. Our market focus is on capital preservation until we see a statistical edge.
By way of example Fig 1.0 below shows a Chart of Lloyds TSB from Mar 2011 and the beginning of a sharp descent (RED) that we avoided from 60.00 to a 21.90 low in Nov 2011 (-63%).
The Table and Chart below however shows that in September, the Banks made a strong recovery but we are mindful that despite a year to date move of 55.10% and month to date change of 20.59%, sometimes reference to percentages of growth can be misleading, Lloyds TSB share price has only recovered less than 50% of this 2011-20112 fall.
The current growth rates would be excellent if you had “found the bottom”. However, we expect that those at the bottom had probably experienced the trip down. As you can see from the above analysis we would have avoided the sharp falls in 2011 and only participated during Q1 2012 and then again Q3 2012.
This is a very visual example of our ability to preserve capital and wait for a less “risky” opportunity to enter the market. Remember if you have taken the initial step to preserve capital you retain control of when you might re-enter a market. At no time have we specifically found a top or bottom, in fact we have often retained a position after a peak or trough. However, we have been able to do so because we found the transaction point that suited our strategy.
The Table below is an extract from the Sinergi Week 38 TACT report with our statistical analysis on the specific Equity Sectors. Our analysis currently shows an “Overweight” stance in the Banks Sector.
Another key factor to remember when guiding a portfolio over time is that the greatest element of value versus risk is achieved by positioning your investments in the best performing sectors rather than working extensively to find individual stocks. As an adviser we know that keeping up with sector performance will probably be all that you have time for. We also know that taking steps to focus your client portfolios consistently on the better performing sectors can make the difference in achieving their personal investment objectives.
To find out more about our Weekly Analysis and how it builds in to a quarterly performance picture, aiming to avoid deteriorating sectors, while seeking capital preservation see Learn More here.
Developing a robust investment methodology means you can influence portfolio performance often by waiting until a more favourable risk/reward opportunity arises.